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Looking at the core performance metrics from both sides' recent competitive outings, Ukraine holds a clear edge over Northern Ireland across nearly all key attacking and midfield control indicators.
Their 18.2% finishing conversion rate and 1.32 expected goals per game outperform Northern Ireland's 12.4% and 0.98 respectively. They also boast a far higher key pass success rate at 67%, compared to Northern Ireland's 54%, with their progressive pass value in the final third reaching 12.3 against the opponent's 9.1.
In midfield battles, Ukraine averages 11.2 tackles per match, and their transition speed after winning back possession hits 1.8 seconds, much faster than Northern Ireland's 2.3 seconds. The side also leads in total running distance at 112km per game, and completes 142 high-intensity sprints on average, 24 more than their opponents' 118.
Further Reading
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Red_Guy Won 3/4Ukraine have recorded outstanding results across their last six fixtures, with their unbeaten rate rising steadily. Northern Ireland have consistently underperformed in the final third, struggling to produce enough goals from their attacking moves. By comparison, Ukraine can take full advantage of home ground dominance to control the game on both ends of the pitch, backed by their recent 8-match run that features 3 wins, 3 draws and just 2 defeats. Both teams have gone through a spell of uneven form recently. Northern Ireland’s recent displays have been underwhelming, but their defensive organization stays sharp, as they have only conceded one goal in most of their recent outings. Ukraine, by contrast, have delivered solid, impressive showings of late. Even though Northern Ireland’s finishing ability is subpar and they have conceded more goals in total, the overall strength gap between the two sides is not huge. It is still uncertain whether Ukraine can stand firm against NorthernAH
UEFA NL
Ukraine
0-3 Northern Ireland
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STARFACE SAJOHome performance has been a solid pillar for Ukraine in recent competitive outings. The side has posted 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across their last 10 matches, with a well-rounded squad that leans toward solid defense but lacks sharpness in final-third finishing, and they come into this tie with full competitive commitment. Northern Ireland, by contrast, have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their past 10 fixtures. Their last outing saw a noticeable dip in overall performance even as their backline still holds up fairly well. Given the extremely high difficulty of competing for the Nations League title this cycle, Northern Ireland are highly likely to reserve partial energy for their upcoming fixtures, and their defensive organization remains extremely polished. While Ukraine have the full support of home advantage, their recent form has slipped notably, and they do not hold a big upper hand in this clash despite their very few home defeats in recent runs, leaving the finalAHUEFA NL
Ukraine
0-3 Northern Ireland
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richardᶜʳᶠLooking at the recent competitive form and historical head-to-head records of both sides, Ukraine has demonstrated far stronger dominance and attacking output in this Nations League fixture. Northern Ireland, by contrast, face notable defensive pressure and a long-running away-game slump that has severely limited their performance on foreign turf. Across their last six outings, Ukraine have notched 4 wins, 1 draw and only 1 defeat, marking a solid 60% win rate. Their attacking line has registered 15 goals in this stretch, averaging 1.5 goals per game to prove their highly consistent finishing ability. Northern Ireland have struggled far more in their corresponding last six fixtures, picking up just 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses for a mere 40% win rate. Struggling badly in the final third, one of the two sides has scored merely 7 goals across 6 matches, averaging less than 1 goal per game, while conceding 8 to post a -1 goal difference, with obvious flaws in their overall offensive and dAHUEFA NL
Ukraine
0-3 Northern Ireland
UEFA NL
