The new Champions League season will kick off on Tuesday evening, and data analytics company Opta has released its pre-season predictions for each team's chances of winning the title. Arsenal lead the rankings, followed by Bayern Munich, Manchester City and Barcelona, while defending champions Paris Saint-Germain are fifth.

According to the predictions, Arsenal are the biggest favorites to win the Champions League, with more than one-fifth (20.9%) of the simulations showing Mikel Arteta's side lifting the trophy. Bayern Munich are considered their biggest threat, with the German giants given a slightly lower 19.4% chance of winning the competition in the simulations. Manchester City are the only other team with a title probability above 10%, at 12.3%.

Defending champions Paris Saint-Germain rank fifth, with a 7.1% chance of winning the Champions League for three consecutive seasons.

Arsenal have a 93.8% probability of reaching the knockout stage. However, Bayern Munich have an advantage when it comes to the league phase. In every simulation, Bayern were the team most likely to finish top of the league phase, with a 19.4% chance of doing so — a higher probability than any other club. Nevertheless, their overall chances of winning the Champions League are slightly lower than Arsenal's. According to Opta's power rankings, Arsenal are currently the strongest team in the world.

Manchester City won their first Champions League title in the 2022-23 season and have a 12.3% chance of lifting the trophy again. If they are to reach the final, however, they will need to significantly improve their performances. Among the main contenders, City also face the toughest league-phase schedule, meaning they will need to perform at a high level even if they are aiming for a top-eight finish. The supercomputer still gives them an 86.9% chance of reaching the last 16.

Before this week, Paris Saint-Germain, who have won the Champions League in each of the previous two seasons, were the fourth favorites. However, following their 2-1 home defeat to Monaco last week, their title probability has dropped to fifth. One possible reason is the difficulty of maintaining their recent success, with the probability of winning three consecutive Champions League titles standing at just 7.1%.

Barcelona have not won the Champions League since 2015, but Opta's supercomputer gives them an 8.2% chance of lifting the trophy this season.

Real Madrid can never be overlooked in the Champions League. They have won the competition twice in the last five seasons and have a record 15 titles in total. However, their current title probability stands at just 4.4%, largely because they have not won a major trophy since lifting the Champions League in the 2023-24 season.

Liverpool also boast an impressive European pedigree and should not be underestimated. They reached the final three times between the 2017-18 and 2021-22 seasons. This season, they have a 13.3% chance of reaching the final and a 6.1% chance of winning the competition, giving them a higher title probability than Real Madrid.

Opta's supercomputer gives Manchester United just a 3.8% chance of emerging as surprise Champions League winners this season. However, the Red Devils have a relatively strong chance of reaching the quarter-finals (37.6%) and even the semi-finals (18.4%).

Inter Milan have an 8.7% chance of reaching the final, although their 3.6% title probability suggests they remain one of the weaker contenders among the leading clubs.

Aston Villa rank 10th in the title probability standings, with just a 2.0% chance of winning the Champions League. Several key players left the club during the summer transfer window, while Villa have made a poor start to their domestic campaign, suggesting they could struggle to make a deep run in Europe's premier club competition.

Borussia Dortmund (1.8%), Sporting CP (1.4%), Roma (1.3%) and Como (1.2%) are the only other teams with a title probability above 1%. The remaining 22 teams in the competition are each given less than a 1.0% chance of winning the Champions League.

Opta's Champions League Title Probability Predictions

* Arsenal — 20.9%

* Bayern Munich — 19.4%

* Manchester City — 12.3%

* Barcelona — 8.2%

* Paris Saint-Germain — 7.1%

* Liverpool — 6.1%

* Real Madrid — 4.4%

* Manchester United — 3.8%

* Inter Milan — 3.6%

* Aston Villa — 2.0%

* Borussia Dortmund — 1.8%

* Sporting CP — 1.4%

* Roma — 1.3%

* Como — 1.2%

* All other participating teams — below 1.0%