According to Portuguese outlet Record, German economist Joachim Klement — who successfully predicted the champions of the 2014, 2018, and 2022 World Cups — has released a new simulation for the 2026 FIFA World Cup through his self-developed algorithmic model. This time, he predicts that the Netherlands will win the tournament, while Portugal will finish as runners-up after losing in the final.

Klement first developed his World Cup prediction model back in 2014, and it has correctly forecast Germany, France, and Argentina to win the last three editions of the tournament. However, even Klement himself admitted he was surprised that the model identified the Netherlands as the favorites for 2026.

“I was genuinely surprised,” he said, “especially because the simulations show that the Netherlands will have an extremely difficult path to the final.” He also revealed more details from the tournament simulation, including Portugal falling short against the Dutch in the final.

According to the projected knockout-stage bracket, the Netherlands would face France in a heavyweight quarter-final clash. Klement noted that France possess one of the strongest squads in world football and would normally have the higher probability of advancing, but he stressed that luck often plays a major role in major tournaments. If the Dutch manage to overcome France and reach the semi-finals, he believes the team would gain enormous confidence and become capable of beating anyone. Their semi-final opponent is projected to be Spain, with the model rating the contest as a perfectly balanced 50-50 matchup.

Portugal’s road to the final is equally impressive. The simulations predict Portugal will defeat Argentina in the quarter-finals before overcoming England in the semi-finals, clearing two major hurdles to reach the final showdown against the Netherlands. In the end, however, Portugal are expected to fall short against the Oranje and miss out on the World Cup title.